Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Grab Bag For Obama

Anyone who knows how the electoral college works pays scant attention to the national polls.

So far, Obama has been consistently ahead in all of the states Bush won in 2004. As you can see here, Bush won 278 of 538 votes in the electoral college. Obama needs 269 votes for a tie and 270 for a clear electoral vote win, therefore, any 9 votes beyond the Kerry states grabs him victory.

Which states could he win? Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida each by themselves are enough to put him over the top. Nevada and New Hampshire together would also work.

As it stands now, Obama holds a clear lead in just about all of these states. In CNN's latest polls he is up 9 Points in Virginia alone!

I still believe that it is Colorado that will put Obama over the top, as he has held a consistent lead in the polls throughout the whole contest as well as an Obama landslide in the state caucus. McCain, on the other hand, was crushed by Romney in the Colorado Republican Caucus.

Finally, what would happen in the not so remote possibility of a 269-269 electoral vote tie? It is complicated, but due to an increasing Democratic congressional majority, a tie would almost certainly go to Obama.

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